An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results. The same procedure is followed for estimating extreme low flows, except the lowest 7-day flow is extracted for each water year, and 7Q10 (the extreme 7-day low flow with a return interval of 10 years) is estimated. 2860, 59th Legislature (WA 2006). Hamlet, and S.-Y. 3. The CBCCSP, in particular, provided access to additional scenarios and downscaling methods that provided a range of hydrologic outcomes associated with uncertainty in the climate projections, which the WACCIA assessments largely did not. Ingalls Weather - Weather reports on whatever I decide to report on. Nous avons implment une rsolution latitudelongitude calibre 1/16 de degr dans le modle capacit d'infiltration variable (VIC) et avons appliqu dans le modle bassin du fleuve Columbia pour produire des simulations historiques et 77 projections hydrologiques futures correspondant trois mthodes de rduction dchelle statistique et trois priodes futures (les dcennies 2020, 2040 et 2080). 6 Example of a summary plot for extreme high flows (Q20, Q50, Q100, left panels) and extreme low flows (7Q10, right panels) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon for two emissions scenarios (A1B, B1) and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, 2080s). The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate thats different from 50 years ago. Ten GCM projections for the A1B scenario and nine projections for the B1 scenario (Table 1) were selected based on a ranking of the GCMs reflecting the combined ability of each GCM to reproduce key features of PNW climate variability, including the seasonal cycle of precipitation, observed trends in temperature in the late twentieth century, bias in reproducing historical temperature and precipitation, and ability to capture key features of observed climate variability (spatial patterns of temperature, pressure, and precipitation) over the North Pacific (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Snowmelt-dominant basins in the United States, which are somewhat warmer and do not experience as much precipitation change in the scenarios, show increases in winter flow, earlier and reduced peak flow in spring, followed by an earlier streamflow recession and lower flows in late summer (e.g., Columbia River at The Dalles in Fig. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America. Communities across the region and around the world are demonstrating that its possible to adapt, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and continue to thrive. Fig. Thanks also to Nancy Stephan (BPA), John Fazio and Jim Ruff (NWPCC), Allan Chapman and Ben Kagasniemi (BCME), and Barry Norris (OWRD) for their contributions to the initial study design. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modeling, Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. Changes in the 1 April snowpack have been shown to depend strongly on winter temperature regimes (Hamlet, Mote, Clark, & Lettenmaier, Citation2005; Mote, Citation2006; Mote et al., Citation2005). Because of a general lack of observed naturalized daily time-step flow for most streamflow sites, daily time step calibration using additional parameters such as the infiltration parameter (bi ) in VIC (Liang et al., Citation1994), or routing parameters (such as the unit hydrograph for each cell) were not attempted during the study. The study was also unique in that this was the first time that these agencies had run their own reservoir operation models to assess climate change impacts in the CRB, an element of the study design which greatly increased the impact of the study conclusions in the agencies involved. 6). These results point to extensive, landscape-scale transformations in hydrologic behaviour associated with climate change. Figures and summary tables for flood statistics and low-flow statistics. Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. Produced by, Clean Energy and Green Building Major Projects, Private and public sector clean energy and green building construction projects valued at $15M or more for the 3rd quarter of each year. (2000). Simulations of floods and extreme low flows increase in intensity for most of the river sites included in the study. Post-processing of the primary VIC model output (see Table 2) was carried out to produce a number of specific products discussed in the following sections. To produce the bias-adjusted flows, a bias correction procedure using quantile mapping techniques is applied (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Snover et al., Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). (Citation2010). Fig. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios, Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study, Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. This web site provides streamflow information for the Columbia River and coastal drainages in Washington and Oregon State for the 21st century based on a large number of climate scenarios and model experiments. O weather.com oferece para voc a previso do tempo mais precisa para Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso com mdias/recordes e temperaturas mximas/mnimas, precipitaes e muito mais. Summary information and statistics: geographic location, basin area, calibration statistics (if available), links to the USGS or ECAN websites, and so forth. The study also used the ColSim reservoir operations model (Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b) to estimate water deliveries to the Columbia Basin Project (the primary irrigation project supplied by water from Grand Coulee Dam) under future climate scenarios using streamflows generated by the integrated VIC/CropSyst model. Weather for Monday, Feb. 27 | Columbia Basin Herald A flight of geese circle over Moses Lake Saturday morning. Why cattle ranching is the biggest deforestation driver in the Amazon Highs in the lower to mid 60s. To select an appropriate group of specific streamflow locations to include in the study to meet these diverse needs, the primary funding agencies for the study and several other key water management agencies in the region (MDNR, IDWR, USBR, and USACE) were asked to submit prioritized lists of streamflow locations. Oregon Water Resources Department. These approaches are also useful for avoiding biases in the streamflow simulations that result from systematic errors in gridded precipitation or temperature data. Since its inception in 1995, CIG has been extensively involved in climate-related research focused on the CRB and its water resources management systems. (1 April SWE and SWE2PR values were calculated using the CD VIC scenarios.). Starting from these parameter sets, an additional large-scale calibration was performed during the CBCCSP to improve model performance in reproducing historical streamflow. Based on, Learn more about the impacts of climate change, Learn how the climate is changing in your area, Learn how our region is responding, and how you can be part of the solution, BC Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development. The HD method was also selected as the basis for the main summary products derived for each river location (see description below), primarily because it was capable of providing good performance over the complete range of products produced by the CBCCSP (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Peak flows actually increase at many sites in Canada because of increasing fall, winter, and spring precipitation in this part of the domain, although the peak flow also occurs about a month earlier. Here, however, we show the same figures in metric units. Most of the fundamental details regarding the VIC implementation used in this study are covered by Elsner et al. Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). Extreme event statistics are calculated directly from the raw (i.e., not bias-adjusted) daily streamflows at each streamflow site, applying methods developed by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2007) and Mantua et al. Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. The CBCCSP provided climate change projections of meteorological drivers and a calibrated VIC implementation in support of the study. (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. endstream endobj startxref 5. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because . Detailed forecast for Lower Columbia Basin of Washington Rest Of Today Partly sunny. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable public resource that has dramatically reduced costs in a number of high-visibility studies in the PNW and western United States focused on technical coordination and planning. Temperature and precipitation vary greatly with elevation, but in the central basin January average daily temperatures are between about 25 and 30 F (4 and 1 C), and July averages are mostly between 70 and 75 F (21 and 24 C). Fig. 1 Map of the selected streamflow locations supported by the CBCCSP. Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso, Brazil Today, Tonight & Tomorrow's Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. Home | Columbia Basin Climate Source As a result the largest changes in snowpack are apparent in the simulations for relatively warm coastal mountain ranges, such as the Cascade Range, and at moderate elevation in the Rockies, where snowpack is most sensitive to changes in temperature of a few degrees Celsius. The smallest of these sub-basins is about 500km2 (approximately fifteen 1/16 degree VIC cells), and the largest encompasses most of the CRB (approximately 620,000km2 or about 18,800 VIC cells). Although results from the WACCIA would arguably have been adequate to support WDOE's adaptation planning, the CBCCSP provided additional foundation support for these efforts, and helped improve confidence in the outcomes of the adaptation strategies identified by better quantifying a range of outcomes. Fig. Glacier outlines are automatically generated from satellite imagery and are provided by, Species and Ecosystems at Risk as identified by the, Current bioclimates and modeled bioclimates for three future climate scenarios in 2080s. For each streamflow location (and its associated contributing basin area), a set of identical products is available on the study web site (CIG, Citation2013b). Text files (six per figure) providing all the ensemble data used to construct each panel in the figure are also provided on the CBCCSP website. Here we will review a few important aspects of the basic implementation to help orient the reader and will then focus most of our attention on the additional implementation and calibration tasks carried out during the CBCCSP.
